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Maharashtra declares drought in 265 of 358 tehsils as pulse prices climb

Maharashtra has declared drought across 265 of its 358 tehsils, and arhar is already trading at ₹9,000-9,200 a quintal against a minimum support price of ₹8,450.

What happened

The Maharashtra government on Saturday declared drought in 265 of the state's 358 tehsils, about three-fourths of the state. Maharashtra's rainfall deficit this monsoon is 18%, against 13% for the country as a whole. The damage is concentrated rather than statewide. Marathwada received 38% less rainfall than normal and Vidarbha 27% less, while seven districts away from the Godavari got only about 50% of normal rain. Western Maharashtra, the sugarcane and onion belt, is comfortable, and Nashik has had 37% excess rainfall.

Context

Two crop calendars are running at different risks. Soyabean is an 80-90 day crop that will reach mandis in about 15 days, so its loss is already fixed: traders put yields at 40-50% of normal in Marathwada and 60-70% in Vidarbha. Arhar takes 160-180 days. It flowers around the third week of October and fills pods in the first week of November, well after the rain has stopped, so a strengthening El Nino threatens it with terminal moisture stress at exactly the wrong stage.

Why it matters

Mandi prices are doing the forecasting that official output estimates cannot yet do. Arhar in Latur is at ₹9,000-9,200 a quintal against an MSP of ₹8,450, and chana is at about ₹7,200 against an MSP of ₹5,875. When a crop trades well above its support price months before harvest, buyers are pricing in a shortfall. Soyabean tells the opposite story at ₹5,600-5,700 against an MSP of ₹5,705, because a good Madhya Pradesh crop is expected to cover Maharashtra's loss. The bigger risk is the next season: depleted soil moisture, reservoirs and borewells may stop farmers sowing rabi chana and jowar at all.

Impact for India

  • Pulse consumers: Arhar and chana are already above their support prices, and a weak rabi sowing would extend the pressure into next year.
  • Marathwada farmers: Soyabean yields of 40-50% of normal arrive into a market where the crop is priced at or just below MSP, so lower output is not offset by higher prices.
  • Vidarbha farmers: Yields of 60-70% of normal leave a smaller but still material income loss.
  • Madhya Pradesh farmers: A good soyabean crop there is expected to offset Maharashtra's production loss nationally.
  • Western Maharashtra: The sugarcane and onion belt is in a relatively comfortable position, and Nashik's 37% excess rainfall protects onion output.
  • Rabi season: Little soil moisture and depleted reservoirs and borewells put chana and jowar sowing in question.

Key data

Tehsils declared drought-hit in Maharashtra: 265 of 358About three-fourths of the state
Maharashtra rainfall deficit: 18%Against 13% for the country as a whole
Marathwada rainfall deficit: 38%Vidarbha 27%Seven districts at about 50% of normal rainfall
Soyabean yield in Marathwada: 40-50% of normal60-70% of normal in Vidarbha
Arhar price in Latur: ₹9,000-9,200 per quintalAgainst an MSP of ₹8,450

Concepts

Minimum support priceA floor price the government announces for a crop and stands ready to buy at, so the market price cannot fall below it for those who sell to procurement agencies.Arhar at ₹9,000-9,200 a quintal is far above its MSP of ₹8,450, so the floor is not binding.
Rain-shadow regionAn area on the leeward side of a hill range that receives little rain because moisture has already fallen on the windward side.Marathwada and Vidarbha are Maharashtra's rain-shadow regions and took the sharpest deficits, at 38% and 27%.
Terminal moisture stressWater shortage during a crop's flowering and grain-filling stages, when the plant is least able to recover from it.Arhar fills pods in early November, after the rain has stopped, which is where the risk lies.
Rabi seasonIndia's winter cropping season, sown from October and harvested in spring, which depends on stored soil moisture and irrigation rather than monsoon rain.Depleted reservoirs and borewells may stop farmers sowing chana and jowar this rabi.

Theory lens

Price floor under a minimum support price — an MSP matters only when the market price would otherwise fall below it. Above that level the floor is irrelevant and the government buys nothing. Maharashtra's mandis show both states at once. Soyabean at ₹5,600-5,700 a quintal in Latur sits just under its MSP of ₹5,705, so the floor is live. Arhar at ₹9,000-9,200 against ₹8,450, and chana at about ₹7,200 against ₹5,875, are far above it, because the market is already pricing a shortfall the MSP cannot prevent.

Stakeholders

Gains: Pulse growers with a standing cropArhar at ₹9,000-9,200 and chana at about ₹7,200 a quintal are both well above their support prices.
Gains: Madhya Pradesh soyabean farmersA good crop there is expected to offset the production loss from Maharashtra.
Gains: Nashik onion growersThe district has received 37% excess rainfall while the rest of the state is short.
Pressure point: Marathwada farmersRainfall 38% below normal leaves soyabean yields at 40-50% of normal.
Pressure point: Pulse consumersArhar and chana are trading above MSP months before the harvest arrives.
Pressure point: Rabi season sowersDepleted soil moisture, reservoirs and borewells may keep chana and jowar out of the ground.

Practice Question — from the story

With reference to this year’s monsoon and the drought declared in Maharashtra, consider the following statements:

  1. Maharashtra's rainfall deficit this season, at 13%, is smaller than the all-India deficit of 18%.
  2. Nashik district, known for onion production, has received 37% excess rainfall this season.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. 1 only
  2. 2 only
  3. Both 1 and 2
  4. Neither 1 nor 2
Reveal answer & explanation

Answer: 2 only

  • Statement 1: Incorrect because the figures are the other way round. Maharashtra has an 18% rainfall deficit against 13% for the country as a whole, so the state is worse off than the national average, not better.
  • Statement 2: Correct because Nashik, known for onion production, has received 37% excess rainfall, in contrast to the sharp deficits in Marathwada and Vidarbha.

Therefore, the correct answer is 2 only.

Concept check — test your understanding

Arhar is trading in Latur at ₹9,000-9,200 a quintal against a minimum support price of ₹8,450, months before harvest. What does a market price running above the MSP tell you?

  1. The government has revised the MSP upward mid-season to bring it in line with prevailing market rates.
  2. Procurement by government agencies at the MSP has bid the open-market price up above the floor.
  3. Farmers will prefer to sell to procurement agencies, since the MSP is guaranteed while the mandi price is not.
  4. Buyers expect output to fall short of demand, so the floor is not binding and procurement will not be triggered.
Reveal answer & explanation

Answer: D

  • An MSP is a floor, not a target. It does anything only when the market would otherwise clear below it. Arhar trading above ₹8,450 means private buyers are competing for a crop they expect to be short, and no government purchase is needed to hold the price up.
  • Option A confuses the calendar. MSPs are announced ahead of the season so farmers can decide what to sow; they are not adjusted to chase mandi prices once the crop is standing.
  • Option B reverses cause and effect. Procurement supports a price that is falling; it does not lift a price that is already above the floor, and here there is no procurement to speak of.
  • Option C is the right instinct applied to the wrong price. A farmer sells wherever the return is higher, so when the mandi pays more than the MSP, procurement centres see very little arrival.